2.2.1. INTENT Intent is the effect that an armed actor ‘wanted’ to achieve. The past tense is used here to reflect the importance in MA of considering the intent at the time the IED was placed, dropped or thrown. The intent of different armed groups will vary between strategic, operational and tactical. At the strategic level, an armed group will establish an overall goal or purpose that drives their involvement in armed conflict. This will in turn drive (or not), the use of IEDs. If an armed group intends to use IEDs as a weapons system, then it does not mean they will use every option that is available. For example, some armed groups would not use suicide IEDs as this may not correspond to cultural or religious values. Some armed groups also have significantly less tolerance for inflicting civilian casualties than others. If this is the case, then the use of VOIEDs and / or landmines of an improvised nature will be subject to controls. Some armed groups will be indifferent or only take on board minor considerations related to civilian casualties, viewing them as a necessary part of the conflict. Other groups will deliberately target civilians. This may be specific ethnic groups or simply to create fear and instability. The value that armed groups place on their own personnel and communities will be reflected in their intent and therefore how they use IEDs. For example, safe-to-arm switches (such as timers) may be incorporated in VOIEDs to provide a delay in the circuit becoming ‘active’ and therefore increasing the safety of the person making the emplacement. Such switches allow time to retreat to a safe distance from the IED after it has been laid. Some armed groups will even use time IEDs to target infrastructure and issue a warning so that civilians can be moved out of harm’s way.
Examples of an armed group’s differing intents include:
INTENT
SO WHAT?
An armed group wants to target road convoys yet maintain the popular support of the local population and leave the route open to other traffic.
Command-initiated devices may better match the intent than VOIEDs as they avoid unintentional casualties.
VOIEDs or improvised landmines may match the intent better than command IEDs as the armed group does not need to constantly observe every IED day and night.
An armed group wants to persistently deny ground to an opponent.
An armed group wants to stop personnel being captured alive and wants any personnel that is facing capture to have the ability to conduct a final act to inflict casualties.
Person-borne suicide IEDs may be commonly carried and not reserved only for spectacular attacks.
Table 3. Analysis of ‘Intent’
2.2.2.CAPABILITY Capability considers what IEDs an armed group will use, and will not use, to achieve its intent. Efficient use of resources is a critical factor for sustaining any armed campaign. The best ‘quality’ IED is the one that can achieve the required result with least amount of resources consumed. This means a ‘good IED capability’ does not have to be the most technically advanced, as a $5 VOIED may be much ‘better’ from the perspective of an armed group than a $100 radio-controlled IED (RCIED).
IED threat assessment
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