Consideration of capability will enable the following question to be answered:
How would an armed group have tried to best achieve their desired effect within the constraints they faced?
Not all groups have access to all IED-related technology and material. Some materials are more scarce or costly than others and will be used sparingly, whereas others may be cheap and suitable for large-scale use.
AVAILABILITY OF MATERIAL
The number of available personnel involved in a conflict will often relate to the scale of IED contamination that is left behind. This is not just the personnel that directly use IEDs but also those available in their manufacture and transportation through logistical chains.
PERSONNEL
Some IEDs require greater levels of knowledge and skill to deploy effectively than others. Some also require certain fundamental attitudes such as in the placement of VOIEDs inside civilian residences or the use of suicide IEDs.
TRAINING
FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT AND SUPPORT FROM THE LOCAL POPULATION
The emplacement of large numbers of IEDs, such as defensive belts consisting of hundreds of VOIEDs to deny freedom of movement, require access to large manufacturing facilities and associated real estate and logistical systems.
Table 4. Capability assessments
The assessment of capability, matched against the intent and opportunity, will enable the following to be assessed:
Where are the high-risk parts of an SHA / CHA? Will different types of IEDs be located in different places or will there be concentrations of multiple IEDs of the same type in a certain location?
LOCATION
Time, command or VO. These can also be broken down into subcategories such as with VO: high metal content or low metal content.
FIRING SWITCH
Different main charges provide different advantages and disadvantages. For example, an off-route main charge targeting vehicles may be more likely to be an explosively formed projectile (EFP) or ‘platter’ charge. Whereas if a blast main charge was used it would likely need to be much larger and located directly underneath the vehicle. People who have dismounted from a vehicle are more likely to be targeted by small blast or fragmentation, with the latter providing an advantage that multiple people can be targeted by a single IED. How can components be placed to best effect? For example, an opposing armed group uses metal detectors. Using a low metal content pressure plate, a plastic main charge container, and a power source several metres away from the anticipated direction of approach, will make the IED harder to detect.
MAIN CHARGE
COMPONENT LAYOUT
Some armed groups have more overall capacity to build and sustain the use of IEDs for longer than others. This will affect the overall scale but not all categories of IED will be used as frequently.
OVERALL SCALE AND FREQUENCY
Table 5. Analysis of capability in consideration of intent and opportunity
IED threat assessment
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