2.2.3.OPPORTUNITY Opportunity relates to an armed group identifying the vulnerabilities of an opponent and exploiting them. Armed groups often use IEDs to exploit weakness through observing patterns that have been set, assessing tactics and procedures, and analysing likely avenues of approach or vital ground (either symbolically, politically or tactically). Assessment of opportunity can consider specific targeting. For example, a military convoy transiting a busy road being targeted by a command device at a specific point. It can also be used to assess wider- level operational plans, such as an armed group’s defence of a city using IEDs to deny ‘avenues of approach’ created by open areas or multiple routes that afford an opposing group the ability to attack en masse. Opportunity factors provide useful information on where a device will be located and how and what the armed actor will have emplaced. The following three factors are important to consider when analysing opportunity:
What opportunities does the terrain provide? At the higher level this is an analysis of the make-up of urban, rural and interface areas, including water features and transportation networks. Further terrain analysis can then be conducted at the MA task site level to determine the high-risk parts of an SHA / CHA. For example, locations of choke points, slowdown and channelled areas. This can be split between two time frames: Conflict . Did the community remain in the area during the conflict or leave? Post conflict . Is the community providing direct or indirect evidence of IED contamination? At the strategic level this will be how an armed group fought their campaign against their opponent(s). At the operational level these are the specifics of how they operated. For example, did they use armoured vehicles, in what formations and how were these being deployed? At the tactical level this will aim to identify what the specific targetable actions were at the time of conflict. For example, poor procedures used by clearance teams or recurring actions such as assaulting forces always entering through obvious points.
TERRAIN
LOCAL COMMUNITY
OPPONENT’S DOCTRINE AND TACTICS
Table 6. Analysis of opportunity-based factors
Opportunity factors can directly affect the make-up of an IED. For example, from an armed actor’s perspective:
EXAMPLE OF OBSERVATION
OPPORTUNITY
If metal detectors were extensively used by an opponent.
Then an armed actor may have used low metal content IEDs.
If poor disposal procedures were employed by an opponent.
Then these may have been observed to deliberately target personnel conducting disposal.
Then an armed actor may have used an EFP main charge to try to penetrate the armour.
If an opponent used heavily armoured vehicles.
Then a directional fragmentation main charge might have caused the most casualties.
If the target was a dismounted patrol.
Table 7. How opportunity can affect the construction of an IED
IED threat assessment
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