2.4.2. SCENARIO 2 – OPERATIONAL THREAT ASSESSMENT
GENERAL DESCRIPTION
An MA operator is requested to survey a route linking a village to a local market town. The villagers have reported an explosion occurring on the route but no casualties.
The town
The village
Crater
Image 11. Image showing the village on the right and the town on the left
DESKTOP INFORMATION
The following information is gathered through the desktop assessment:
• During the conflict an NSAG targeted a state armed group a number of times on the route between the village and the town. Conflict in the area ended six months previously.
• The NSAG was extremely careful not to cause civilian casualties and although numerous successful attacks were conducted, there were no reports of civilian casualties, with the route remaining open for civilian use throughout the conflict.
• The NSAG used a wide range of high metal content pressure plate VOIEDs.
• There were no reports of the NSAG using RCIEDs in this area, although other types of command IED may have been used.
NTS INFORMATION
The following information is gathered during NTS of the route:
• A number of key informant interviews were conducted and the route was discussed with a number of users, across different ages and genders. All users reported that the route has been regularly trafficked by pedestrians, vehicles, motorcycles and herds of sheep over the last six months and that no accidents have occurred. • One week previously there was a large explosion at a culvert. It occurred approximately five minutes before a minibus full of children would have transited this point. Further investigation revealed that a shepherd had been working in the adjacent area when the explosion occurred. The shepherd stated that, at the time of the explosion, he had moved the herd into a field that had not been grazed since the conflict ended. Other than the explosion, the only thing he observed out of the ordinary was one of his sheep becoming entangled in ‘kite string’ that appeared to be running towards the road. • The NTS team can access a known safe area 70 m from where the explosion occurred. Using binoculars, they can see a crater in the road consistent with the functioning of approximately 20 kg of explosives.
IED threat assessment
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