OPERATIONAL THREAT ASSESSMENT
A threat assessment consistent with Annex C of IMAS 07.14 Risk Management in Mine Action, based on the evidence of IED indicators and signs recorded during NTS, concludes that:
The compound highlighted in the photos is likely to be concealing a receiver for an RCIED with a potential main charge in the middle of the track. The main charge is likely to be a medium-sized charge and is potentially military ordnance.
ׁ WARNING. Evidence recorded from other sources such as key informant interviews, national threat analysis and MA reports related to the area would be used to expand this operational threat assessment prior to its inclusion in an IED clearance plan.
A breakdown of the evidence and assessment linkage is as follows:
OPERATIONAL THREAT ASSESSMENT
EVIDENCE
ASSESSMENT
During the conflict, the armed group and the local community had a relatively amicable relationship or environment with no known accidental IED incidents. The highlighted compound is on the northern side of the route and the ground directly adjacent presents a bottleneck effect where the desert links to the urbanised area. The route presents the main vehicular access to the port, which was of strategic value. The ground is viable for IED secretion due to its nature of compacted sand which is interspersed with loose soil . There are areas of top signs around the compound including a potential past explosion contact point which may include a nearby compound and also a wire protruding from the corner of a compound. Military ordnance or discardables found by local population in other areas. Damage or disturbances in VPs nearby from the result of an explosion, consistent with military ordnance fragmentation.
The area around the red compound is a VP due to the channelling from the desert that enables a good line of sight to a contact point on the route. Command-initiated devices offer more control to the armed group than VOIEDs. With no known accidental IED incidents against the local population in the area and considering information from key informants, it is highly likely that any IEDs will be command- initiated and most likely RCIEDs as the opposing forces had no means to mitigate their use. The urban-rural interface environment would have had a lower pattern of life in comparison to the more densely populated areas, presenting an opportunity to better target opposing forces without the threat of local population casualties. This assessment is commensurate with armed group tactics within this area. Military ordnance is available to this armed group and offers superior explosive qualities, beneficial if targeting vehicles. Opposing forces did not mitigate the risk of IEDs by searching with metal detectors. The use of plastic container main charges was not necessary.
Most likely command- initiated devices in the area. Probable
RCIED in the area of the highlighted compound.
The main charge is likely to be a medium-sized charge and is potentially military ordnance.
Scenario examples
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